WAR GAMES OF THE ALLIES



The first machinery complex SAM TOR-M2 began to arrive from Russia to Belarus and a secret American drone aircraft got into the hands of Iranians and Belarus is also involved in the story. These two events again reminded everybody about the defense power of the country in the center of Europe. Can we expect that the strategic ally of Russia on its western borders can be a real shield against some external threat? www.Euramost meets political columnist Roman Yakovlevsky to discuss the question.

- In recent

years, information about the Kremlin's plans to place a new missile systems
"Iskander" in Kaliningrad enclave has been disseminated in various
mass media. Belarus was mentioned as possible area for placing the system. And
then, suddenly, the Minister of Defense of Belarus informed about the arrival
of other Russian SAM TOR-M2 to Brest region. What does this all mean?

- Apparently, Russia is supplying Belarus with SAM TOR-M2 as the routine
equipment of Belarusian Armed Forces, which are considered to be an important
component of the CSTO on its western borders. As we know, one of the benefits
for member countries of this defensive organization, dominated by Russia, is
that they are provided with Russian arms on such a reduced price, that we can
assume that such supplies are free of charge. Thus, a great Russia lures the
CSTO members into its "brotherly embrace" .--

- Can Russian 'Iskanders' appear on the Belarusian land?

- Yet, there is no complete
clarity about their appearance in Kaliningrad region which is also often called
the West Russia. Probability of their occurrence there will be increased in
direct relation to the implementation of the plans to deploy U.S. missile
defense system in Europe. Today, we see that the attitude of the both sides is
mutually determined. So the Kaliningradians are likely to see
"Iskanders".

But as for the Belarusians, the appearance of these rocket "toys" is
possible only under conditions
of a direct Russian guiding. Despite all the close alliance ties between Minsk
and Moscow in the sphere of defense, Moscow strategists do not have any desire
to make "Iskanders", relatively speaking, Belarusian. Therefore,
their "hawk" Dmitry Rogozin, calls today’s rumors about the
appearance of these SAMs in Belarus absurd. True, it is difficult to say for
sure what the situation will be like next year, when personnel changes will
occur in the Kremlin, and in major Western capitals. When Putin in his
"plain talk" made it clear that stability was not stagnation, but a
sustainable development, then, presumably, he was taking into account future
relations with the official Minsk. It is clear that Moscow is waiting for the
personnel changes there as well.

- Until recently, the information has been appearing often about the profitable
military-technical cooperation between Belarus and Iran, which did not cause
any jealousy of the Union Russia. And then there was the sensational report
that the Iranians got into their hands a secret American drone aircraft,
possibly connected with the Belarusians. It turns out that the official Minsk
not that funny in the world arms market, as sometimes people think, doesn’t it?

- There happen fewer laughs at the global ambitions of the ruling regime in
Belarus, though. Condescending irony of Russian armourers to their Belarusian
partners in the global arms market, which has been shown, recently, now is
often changed to concern and tension. As it turned out, the Belarusians are
capable, and very successfully, to act in this market and compete with their
Russian allies.

In the incident with the American drone aircraft, the particularly important is
the fact that many important components of the complex electronic warfare, such
as, for example, ground stations of high-power noise jammer and equipment to
block GPS in the world market is produced and sold by Belarus. The theory that
in the case of Iran the Russian mediator was supplying the country with this
products, so far, has not been confirmed. But it is known that the
Belarusian manufacturers of EW equipment prepared the means of countering
against unmanned aircrafts. Experts note that board electronics can be
disrupted both by a long-service powerful jamming station SNP-2 and SNP-4 of
the Belarusian army, and the new interference stations. According to U.S.
media, this drone was used in Iran for the CIA to gather information about the
objects of nuclear program in the country.

In the case of greater confirm of the possible involvement of Belarus in the
story, we could confidently say that of the country, located in the heart of
Europe, will have to be taken into account outside the European continent even
being in a systemic crisis.

Mikhail Korobchits